1;Acknowledgments;5 2;Contents;7 3;Authors;11 4;Chapter 1 Introduction: Local Processes with Global Impacts;19 4.1;1.1 A Research Agenda for a Primary Driver of Global Change;19 4.1.1;1.1.1 Introduction;19 4.1.2;1.1.2 Development of the Land-Use/Cover Change (LUCC) Project;20 4.2;1.2 The Distinction between Land Use and Land Cover;22 4.3;1.3 Theoretical Foundations for Land-Change Science: Multiple Theories but Not "Atheoretical";23 4.3.1;1.3.1 Box and Arrow Frameworks;23 4.3.2;1.3.2 Disciplinary Theories;24 4.3.3;1.3.3 Potential for an Overarching Theory;25 4.4;1.4 Objectives and Structure of the Book;26 5;Chapter 2 Global Land-Cover Change: Recent Progress, Remaining Challenges;27 5.1;2.1 Introduction;27 5.2;2.2 Historical Changes in Global Land Cover;29 5.2.1;2.2.1 Global Land-Cover Changes over the Last Millennium;29 5.2.2;2.2.2 Global Land-Cover Changes over the Last 300 Years;30 5.2.3;2.2.3 What Makes the 20th Century Unique?;38 5.3;2.3 Most Rapid Land-Cover Changes of the Last Decades: Rapid and Extensive;39 5.3.1;2.3.1 Recent Forest-Cover Changes;39 5.3.2;2.3.2 Recent Changes in Agricultural Areas;42 5.3.3;2.3.4 Recent Changes in Urbanization;43 5.3.4;2.3.5 Recent Changes in Drylands;44 5.3.5;2.3.6 Summary and Conclusions;46 5.4;2.4 The Complexity of Land-Cover Change;47 5.4.1;2.4.1 The Poorly Documented Changes;47 5.4.2;2.4.2 Characterizing the Complexity of Changes;51 5.5;2.5 Power and Limitations of Remote Sensing;52 5.5.1;2.5.1 Remote Sensing of Global Land Cover;52 5.5.2;2.5.2 The Challenge of Monitoring;53 5.6;2.6 Conclusions;56 6;Chapter 3 Causes and Trajectories of Land-Use/Cover Change;58 6.1;3.1 Introduction;58 6.2;3.2 Explaining Land Dynamics;59 6.2.1;3.2.1 Proximate Versus Underlying Causes;59 6.2.2;3.2.2 The Context of Land Change: Slow Versus Fast, and the Role of Mediating Factors;61 6.3;3.3 Synopsis of Broad Factors Affecting Land Change;62 6.3.1;3.3.1 Biophysical Factors;62 6.3.2;3.3.2 Economic and Technological Factors;64 6.3.3;3.3.3 Demographic Factors;70 6.3.4;3.3.4 Institutional Factors;74 6.3.5;3.3.5 Cultural Factors;77 6.4;3.4 Causation Revisited;79 6.4.1;3.4.1 Factor Interaction and Conjunctural Causation;79 6.4.2;3.4.2 Feedbacks, Thresholds, Endogeneity, and Co-Evolution;81 6.4.3;3.4.3 Globalization;81 6.5;3.5 Syndromes, Pathways, and Transitions;82 6.5.1;3.5.1 Syndromes of Land Change;82 6.5.2;3.5.2 Typical Pathways of Land-Use/Cover Change;84 6.5.3;3.5.3 Land-Use Transitions;85 6.6;3.6 Conclusions;86 7;Chapter 4 Multiple Impacts of Land-Use/Cover Change;88 7.1;4.1 Introduction;88 7.2;4.2 Provision and Lack of Food, Feed, Fiber, and Timber;89 7.2.1;4.2.1 Overview;89 7.2.2;4.2.2 Variations in Land Productivity;91 7.2.3;4.2.3 Food Insecurity and Poverty;91 7.2.4;4.2.4 Worsening Conditions for Food and Fiber Production?;92 7.3;4.3 Disease Risk and Human Health;94 7.3.1;4.3.1 Overview;94 7.3.2;4.3.2 Spread of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases;95 7.3.3;4.3.3 Biocide Usage and Land-Use Intensification;98 7.3.4;4.3.4 Health Concerns from Indirect Land-Use Effects;98 7.4;4.4 Atmospheric Chemistry, Climate Regulation, and Life Support Functions;99 7.4.1;4.4.1 Overview;99 7.4.2;4.4.2 Micro- and Meso-Level Impacts;100 7.4.3;4.4.3 Macro- or Global-Scale Impacts;100 7.4.4;4.4.4 Land Use and Greenhouse Gas Forcing;101 7.4.5;4.4.5 Feedbacks, Surprises and Unresolved Issues;103 7.5;4.5 Agrodiversity and Biodiversity Loss;106 7.5.1;4.5.1 Overview;106 7.5.2;4.5.2 Conservation and Loss of Biodiversity;107 7.5.3;4.5.3 Habitat Destruction, Degradation and Fragmentation;108 7.5.4;4.5.4 Pollination Losses and Other Impacts;112 7.6;4.6 Soil Quality and Land-Use/Cover Change;113 7.6.1;4.6.1 Overview;113 7.6.2;4.6.2 Extent of Human-Induced Degradation;115 7.6.3;4.6.3 Impacts of Soil Degradation;119 7.6.4;4.6.4 Preventing Soil Degradation, Improving Soil Quality;120 7.7;4.7 Freshwater Hydrology, Agricultural Water Use, and Coastal Zones;121 7.7.1;4.7.1 Overview;121 7.7.2;4.7.2 Hydrological Consequences of Land-Use/Cover