1;CONTENTS;7 2;1. Introduction;10 2.1;1.1 AN UNCERTAIN WORLD;11 2.2;1.2 SCENARIO-BASED STRATEGIC PLANNING;13 2.3;1.3 THE GOAL OF THIS BOOK;14 2.4;1.4 REFERENCES;16 3;2. The challenges of strategic management in the twenty-first century;18 3.1;2.1 DETERMINANTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL UNCERTAINTY;19 3.1.1;2.1.1 VOLATILITY;21 3.1.2;2.1.2 COMPLEXITY;23 3.1.3;2.1.3 AMBIGUITY;26 3.2;2.2 THE EVOLUTION OF STRATEGIC PLANNING;27 3.2.1;2.2.1 THE GOLDEN AGE OF STRATEGIC PLANNING;27 3.2.2;2.2.2 THE STRATEGIC PROCESS ERA;29 3.2.3;2.2.3 THE MULTI-PERSPECTIVE VIEW;31 3.3;2.3 TECHNIQUES OF PREDICTING THE FUTURE;33 3.4;2.4 CONCLUSIONS;35 3.5;2.5 REFERENCES;35 4;3. Scenario-based strategic planning: A new approach to coping with uncertainty;39 4.1;3.1 INTRODUCTION;40 4.2;3.2 SCENARIO PLANNING - THE BASIS FOR MODERN STRATEGIC PLANNING;42 4.3;3.3 DESIGNING A SCENARIO-BASED APPROACH TO STRATEGIC PLANNING;45 4.3.1;3.3.1 OVERVIEW;45 4.3.2;3.3.2 INTEGRATING THE APPROACH INTO THE STRATEGIC PLANNINGPROCESS;59 4.4;3.4 CONCLUSION;60 4.5;3.5 REFERENCES;60 5;4. Six tools for scenario-based strategic planning and their application;63 5.1;4.1 INTRODUCING TOOLS ONE AND TWO: THE FRAMING CHECKLIST AND 360° STAKEHOLDER FEEDBACK;64 5.1.1;4.1.1 THE FRAMING CHECKLIST;64 5.1.2;4.1.2 DESCRIPTION OF THE FRAMING CHECKLIST;66 5.1.3;4.1.3 360° STAKEHOLDER FEEDBACK;72 5.1.4;4.1.4 EVALUATION OF THE FRAMING CHECKLIST AND 360° STAKEHOLDERFEEDBACK;79 5.2;4.2 APPLYING FRAMEWORKS ONE AND TWO: THE FRAMING CHECKLIST AND 360° STAKEHOLDER FEEDBACK IN THE EUROPEAN AIRLINE INDUSTRY;82 5.2.1;4.2.1 INTRODUCTION;82 5.2.2;4.2.2 THE FRAMING CHECKLIST;83 5.2.3;4.2.3 360° STAKEHOLDER FEEDBACK;84 5.3;4.3 INTRODUCING TOOLS THREE AND FOUR: THE IMPACT/UNCERTAINTY GRID AND THE SCENARIO MATRIX;90 5.3.1;4.3.1 THE IMPACT/UNCERTAINTY GRID;90 5.3.2;4.3.2 DESCRIPTION OF THE IMPACT/UNCERTAINTY GRID;92 5.3.3;4.3.3 THE SCENARIO MATRIX;94 5.3.4;4.3.4 DESCRIPTION OF THE SCENARIO MATRIX;99 5.3.5;4.3.5 EVALUATING THE IMPACT/UNCERTAINTY GRID AND THESCENARIO MATRIX;104 5.4;4.4 APPLYING FRAMEWORKS THREE AND FOUR: THE IMPACT/UNCERTAINTY GRID AND THE SCENARIO MATRIX IN THE EUROPEAN AIR-LINE INDUSTRY;106 5.4.1;4.4.1 INTRODUCTION;106 5.4.2;4.4.2 THE IMPACT/UNCERTAINTY GRID;106 5.4.3;4.4.3 THE SCENARIO MATRIX;108 5.5;4.5 INTRODUCING TOOLS FIVE AND SIX: THE STRATEGY MANUAL AND THE MONITORING COCKPIT;124 5.5.1;4.5.1 INTRODUCTION;124 5.5.2;4.5.2 THE STRATEGY MANUAL;124 5.5.3;4.5.3 DESCRIPTION OF THE STRATEGY MANUAL;128 5.5.4;4.5.4 THE SCENARIO COCKPIT;131 5.5.5;4.5.5 DESCRIPTION OF THE SCENARIO COCKPIT;133 5.5.6;4.5.6 EVALUATING THE STRATEGY MANUAL AND THE SCENARIOCOCKPIT;136 5.6;4.6 APPLYING FRAMEWORKS FIVE AND SIX: THE STRATEGY MANUAL AND THE SCENARIO COCKPIT IN THE EUROPEAN AIRLINE INDUSTRY;138 5.6.1;4.6.1 THE STRATEGY MANUAL;138 5.6.2;4.6.2 THE SCENARIO COCKPIT;141 5.7;4.7 REFERENCES;144 6;5. Scenario-based strategic planning;147 6.1;5.1 INTRODUCTION;148 6.2;5.2 CHALLENGE AND OBJECTIVES;149 6.3;5.3 METHODOLOGY/APPROACH;149 6.3.1;5.3.1 IDENTIFYING AND RATING INFLUENCING FACTORS;150 6.3.2;5.3.2 BUILDING SCENARIOS;152 6.3.3;5.3.3 FOUR SCENARIOS FOR GLOBAL MANUFACTURINGINDUSTRY;153 6.3.4;5.3.4 IDENTIFYING OPPORTUNITIES AND BUILDING BUSINESSCASES;161 6.4;5.4 BEST PRACTICES;163 6.5;5.5 CONCLUSIONS;164 7;6. The benefits of scenario-based planning;165 7.1;6.1 INTRODUCTION;166 7.2;6.2 DECISION-MAKING COMPREHENSIVENESS AND SPEED;169 7.2.1;6.2.1 DECISION MAKING COMPREHENSIVENESS;169 7.2.2;6.2.2 DECISION SPEED;171 7.3;6.3 COGNITIVE BIASES;172 7.4;6.4 AN INTEGRATIVE MODEL OF DECISION QUALITY;175 7.5;6.5 SCENARIO-BASED STRATEGIC PLANNING;176 7.6;6.6 CONCLUSION;180 7.7;6.7 REFERENCES;181 8;7. The benefits of scenario-based planning;186 8.1;7.1 INTRODUCTION;187 8.2;7.2 STRATEGIC FLEXIBILITY - OPENING THE DOOR TO A CHANGE OF STRATEGY;188 8.3;7.3 OBSTACLES TO STRATEGIC FLEXIBILITY;191 8.4;7.4 PRACTICAL APPLICATION;193 8.5;7.5 SCENARIO-BASED PLANNING AS A TOOL TO CRAFT STRATEGIC FLEXIBILITY;196 8.6;7.6 REFERENCES;199 9;8. Conclusion - Good m